Many Kansans are asking if the political landscape of Kansas and America has begun to change. Looking at the numbers, the answer has to be “Yes”.
The Kansas Secretary of State provides voter registration statistics on their website. The data is published irregularly, and the most current published numbers for voter registration are from June 1st 2010. When we look at these statistics we find some surprising facts.
- Using the most current published statistics, 2010 Year-To-Date, the only political party with positive growth in registered voters is the Libertarian Party of Kansas. Republican, Democrat, and Reform have lost voters.
- In the last 11 months the same holds true. The Libertarian Party shows growth; all other parties have been shrinking.
- The same is also true for the last 18 months.
- In the last 22 months, both the Libertarian and Democrat Party show positive growth while the Republican and Reform demonstrate a near two year trend of losses in the number of registered voters. As a percentage, the Libertarian Party’s growth over this time is three times greater than that of the Democrat Party.
- The only other category that has shown growth similar to the Libertarian Party of Kansas is unaffiliated voters. Data from the most recent months shows that the Libertarian Party’s growth is even eclipsing that of the unaffiliated voters.
The graph below visually displays these trends in Kansas Political Party Growth (or Shrinkage).
It’s not just voter registration data that demonstrates this morphing of the political landscape. A recent Gallup Poll showed that nationwide 58% of Americans want a third political party.
“The desire for a third party is fairly similar across ideological groups, with 61% of liberals, 60% of moderates, and 54% of conservatives believing a third major party is needed. That is a narrower gap than Gallup has found in the past; conservatives have typically been far less likely than liberals and moderates to support the creation of a third party.” 9/17 Gallup Poll
There are certainly arguments that some will use to explain away these statistics. Some will accurately point out that while the Libertarian Party of Kansas is the only party in Kansas that has demonstrated sustained growth over the last two years; its membership is still miniscule compared to the establishment parties. As of June 2010, The Republicans had 739,652 registered voters compared to the Libertarians’ just 9,838. The counter argument to that is that the Libertarians have found ways to grow even without full access to the primaries and to the debates. What will happen when they achieve major party status by receiving 5% of the statewide vote in the governor’s race? It’s hard to imagine their trend line being any more impressive, but with major party status it seems a safe assumption that their growth will indeed change the political landscape of Kansas.
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I like the Libertarian Party, but what I am afraid of is that it will divide the Repulican vote and then Demoncrates will win.
It’s also silly because the odds of you determining the outcome of an election are astronomically slim.
It is likely however that if the votes into the Libertarian Party spike, the career politicians in the incumbent parties will change their policies to look more appealing to those voters.
Every vote sends a message.
Bryon,
Thanks for the comment. We hear this comment a lot.
First, in this election this point holds NO weight because Senator Brownback is 28 points ahead of Holland and he still plans to spend $2.9 million dollars on a job that pays $110,000. He is going to win, so voting for the Gray Team is as safe as it ever can be.
Second, how many years have the establishment parties been maintaining the status quo by telling us that if we vote for a third party we might “split the vote”? The two establishment parties have no incentive to change the way they treat voters because they know we will always vote for ‘our party’ because no matter how badly they treat us they are better than the alternative. It is a classic abusive relationship.
It takes courage to quit voting for the lesser of the two evils. It takes courage to say, “You cannot control me anymore with fear!” This year vote with courage. Stop voting out of fear for what might be, and instead vote with courage for what could be. Nothing will change until you have the courage to change the way you vote.